![]() Especially given that nobody would actually be competing against him. But if I’m right and Trump is alive, has two thumbs, and a smart phone, then ain’t nobody beating him in a Republican primary. ![]() Maybe the hamburgers could catch up to him-the actuarial tables are the actuarial tables. You are telling me Trump is gonna be sending out Truth Social regeets from the Al-Saw palace while occasionally showing up as a surrogate for the Hot New Thing? Our Donald J. Here’s why: It’s hard to imagine him being alive and allowing someone else to get all the attention. I think it’s more like an 80 percent chance that he runs. So take a 55 percent chance of his party winning, add a 60 percent chance of running and that gives Biden a 33 percent chance of being re-elected. But I’m not that good at doing math in my head so I rounded the odds to 55/45 in order to make things easier and give Uncle Joe a bit of a boost.įrom there I figured that Biden is about 60 percent likely to run in 2024, given that he’ll be almost a decade older than Ronny Reagan was when he ran as the longest-in-the-tooth person to be nominated on a major party ticket in 1984. I figured that the Democrats are about a 52/48 favorite over the Republicans in 2024 based on incumbency and the thirty-year streak of winning the popular vote all but once. (Aside: Dear God, grant me the ability to think about something besides the 2024 election during my morning scrubdown.)ĭuring a thorough lather I did some quick arithmetic. So I’m not a big politics gambler and hadn’t realized this sea change had happened over the past few weeks until I went looking for it after this disturbing realization came to me mid-shower the other morning. The Tennessee GOP lives in such a bubble, they thought it was a good idea… BetOnline.ag is even more bullish on the former guy, putting his odds at +250, with Biden at +350. PaddyPower, the famed Irish bookmaker that is now backed by FanDuel, gave Trump the third best odds in August, but now has him in pole position. Oddschecker has Trump at about a 3:1 chance of winning (+333) while Biden is at 4:1 (+400). I’d understand if you had some doubts about whether the same stonkheads who sent the DWAC SPAC behind Trump’s nonexistent social media site to the moon can be trusted when it comes to handicapping elections, but the offshore bookmakers are singing from the same Wall Street Bets hymnbook. At, the worm turned on October 12 with Trump moving past Biden as most likely to win in 2024 and he’s expanded his advantage in the past few weeks. ![]() Over at Predict-It, on the question of who will win the 2024 election, Trump was the most expensive bet going for $0.28 while the incumbent is selling for $0.26. It’s the actual, real-world reality being presented by those who have the most skin in the game.īoth the major off-shore gambling quants and the online trading markets have moved in Mr. Attribute this article to my raging Trump Derangement Syndrome or The Bulwark’s Cady Heron-level obsession with Mar-a-Lago’s in-house wedding toastmaster.īut this ain’t about my compulsions. Now I’m sure some will roll their eyes when this headline comes across the Twitter feed. ![]() The twice-impeached, disgraced loser who was schlonged in the 2020 election, tried to stay in power against the will of the people, and then came ten cowardly Republican senators away from being disqualified from ever running for office again, is now more likely than any other person in the world to take the next oath of office on the Capitol steps on January 20, 2025. I know that lede sentence was also the headline, but I wanted you to read it one more time just to let it really settle in the ol’ noggin before pressing forward. So Donald Trump is now the odds-on favorite to be president of the United States in 2025. ![]()
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